Monday, May 19, 2008

Fairytales On HIV In Africa

This article is a response to Wynfred Russell’s article: “HIV Rocks Liberia and other African communities” published in the online Liberian Journal of April 23, 2008[1]. The main reason for the faulty result is the method of calculation. When we use the mean or average method to find out the rate of infection, it will be normal to have those results. Take for example you go to Minnesota; in a particular area where you have all these people sleeping around and they are from Africa but different countries. You find within this radius 10 Cameroonians and 8 have HIV, 14 Liberians and 12 are HIV Positive, 24 Nigerians and 20 are positive. Using the average calculation it will give you the wrong picture. Certain things need to be considered: like is it a general trend or just the Africans in this particular area. Even in countries some areas in certain countries are more infected than others. Others face a pandemic will others are safe from it. Therefore, proper methods and apparati are needed to produce untainted results.

Take for example all over the net there is this false information that 64% of Sub Saharan Africa is HIV positive[2]. What is the population of the Sub Saharan countries? Let us say for benefit of doubt we accept the 24.1 millions as standard though it’s in approximation. Sub Sahara is made up of 50 countries at least. Subtract that from these figures and convert it into percentage and it does not give you 10%. The numbers they put out there were for Sub-Saharan Africa but they said there were some countries. That is false. Let me prove to you again that the HIV information on Africa has been distorted.

If the amount of infected HIV Sub Saharan Africa stands at 24. 2 millions and in 2005 the population was 770 millions and is growing at a 2.3% per annum, what would be the current population estimate in 2008? Take a look at the calculation below and tell me how any organization or unbiased individual will come up with the 64%.

Population in 2005 ---770Population in 2006 --- (770 x 2.3/100) + 770 = 787.81Population in 2007 ----(787.81x 2.3/100) + 787.81 = 805.92963Population in 2008 --- (805.92963 x2.3/100) + 805.92963 = 824.46601149 (in millions)Percentage of people infected with HIV24.2 millions is 3.14% of 770 millions (if 770 millions is 100% of the population in 2005, 24.2 millions will be 24.2 x 100/770 = 3.14%)In 2008, 3.14% of 824.47 millions of the population will be infected --> 824.47 x 3.14/100 = 25.91 millions.

What is the percentage of people infected with HIV considering that there is treatment and better means of reducing the disease in 2008? With this calculation do you see that the claims about HIV infections in Africa are exaggerated?

Look at his statement above there is error. Then look at the facts you realize they are subjective. There are two plausible reason for inflating the HIV infection rates so that the West will use Africa as their new cavy to test their new drugs and then also to look for a means to swindle money from organizations and government. No doubt there is HIV infection but the percentage is more in the WEST than in Africa because the immune system of Africans is more solid than those of westerners. Take for example; the African drinks water in Africa does not get sick, comes to the US and drinks water but still does not get sick. The westerner moves to one state drinks water gets sick goes to Africa drinks water and catches diarrhea. Secondly, the Africans live more on natural foods than the fertilizer food that the westerners stuff themselves with. So if both were to pick up a disease or a virus the African will have better chances of survival than the Westerner.

Now, that is not the issue here; the issue here is the inaccurate data to pass information. In 1990 a report that stated one out of every ten Africans has HIV. My question then was why has there been population explosion rather than death explosion. I sat in a church and heard a missionary tell a lie about Cameroon (a country I have traveled extensively) just in the name of raising money. Little did he know I come from Cameroon? There is no where in Cameroon where kids drink water from the gutter. A stream yes, but a gutter I have never seen or heard and I have never made my friendship with rich people to neglect the plight of the poor. So I know well the calamity the poor faces in Cameroon and Africa. Therefore I will take this information with a lot of reservation.

Nonetheless, I abjure every sexually active individual to go and take one or two tests to determine their status. In case you are positive seek treatment at once for the earlier you start the better. HIV is a disease like any other diseases and so there should be no stigma or shame about it. Above all the best method of prevention is abstinence and fidelity. As most of you know that I have always taken the tests and even published my results like I did last year.

Until then, be cautious as you embrace these studies.

Prince & PA Hamilton Ayuk.


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